The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU, offers funding to develop a novel probabilistic method for classifying bear sightings. This initiative aims to correct biases and underestimation of uncertainty in current bear abundance (N) estimates. The project will construct a hierarchical model, treating true sighting histories as unobserved variables, integrating observational data. Utilizing Bayesian model fitting, this approach will accurately predict bear abundance while rigorously quantifying uncertainty. This research is crucial for providing robust and reliable bear population assessments.
Opportunity ID: 48478
General Information
| Document Type: | Grants Notice |
| Funding Opportunity Number: | 09HQPA0055 |
| Funding Opportunity Title: | Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU |
| Opportunity Category: | Discretionary |
| Opportunity Category Explanation: | – |
| Funding Instrument Type: | Cooperative Agreement |
| Category of Funding Activity: | Science and Technology and other Research and Development |
| Category Explanation: | – |
| Expected Number of Awards: | 1 |
| Assistance Listings: | 15.808 — U.S. Geological Survey_ Research and Data Collection |
| Cost Sharing or Matching Requirement: | No |
| Version: | Synopsis 1 |
| Posted Date: | Jul 15, 2009 |
| Last Updated Date: | – |
| Original Closing Date for Applications: | Jul 27, 2009 |
| Current Closing Date for Applications: | Jul 27, 2009 |
| Archive Date: | Aug 26, 2009 |
| Estimated Total Program Funding: | $23,216 |
| Award Ceiling: | $0 |
| Award Floor: | $0 |
Eligibility
| Eligible Applicants: | Others (see text field entitled “Additional Information on Eligibility” for clarification) |
| Additional Information on Eligibility: | This financial assistance opportunity is being issued under a Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program. CESU’s are partnerships that provide research, technical assistance, and education. Eligible recipients must be a participating partner of the Rocky Mountain Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit (CESU) Program. |
Additional Information
| Agency Name: | Geological Survey |
| Description: | The purpose of the Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center (NOROCK) funding opportunity is to develop a new method for classifying bear sightings using probabilistic methods. The proposed approach will be based on modeling observations of bear, their movements and the numbers of cubs. In this approach, the true sighting history for bears is treated as an unobserved (latent) random variable that must be predicted. The current method sin effect selects one of the possible true sighting histories and then treats this as if it were known. In the proposed approach, the prediction of the latent sighting histories is an intermediate step in the estimation of bear abundance N. Importantly, the uncertainty in prediction which potential sighting history is the true one is carried over into the quantified uncertainty in N. Thus, the proposed method will be able to () correct for bias in estimation resulting from an arbitrary classification of bears, and (2) correct for underestimation of uncertainty in N resulting from unmodeled uncertainty in the determination of the true sighting history. To develop a hierarchical model for (1) information on locations and time of sightings of radio-collared bears and (2) locations and times from sightings of bears from observational flights and ground surveys of our study area, including both collared and un-collared bears. To fit this model using Bayesian model fitting procedures leading to inference about N. Key steps in the development and fitting of this joint model are the extraction of relevant data, the development of the algebraic structure of the joint model, and the writing of computer code for fitting the model to the data. It is assumed that the data will be provided by the relevant agencies supporting this research. Began an initial step towards developing the model by completing an initial model; however, further work that is required is the development of a model for changes in the numbers of cubs during the survey period and a spatial model describing the distribution of females with cubs of the year within the greater Yellowstone. A third stage of this project will involve developing a Markov chain Monte Carlo updater for Bayesian fitting of the model developed. |
| Link to Additional Information: | – |
| Grantor Contact Information: | If you have difficulty accessing the full announcement electronically, please contact:
FAITH GRAVES
Contract Specialist Phone 703-648-7356 Email:fgraves@usgs.gov |
Version History
| Version | Modification Description | Updated Date |
|---|---|---|
Related Documents
Folder 48478 Full Announcement-1 -> full announcement.pdf
Packages
| Agency Contact Information: | FAITH GRAVES Contract Specialist Phone 703-648-7356 Email: fgraves@usgs.gov |
| Who Can Apply: | Organization Applicants |
| Assistance Listing Number | Competition ID | Competition Title | Opportunity Package ID | Opening Date | Closing Date | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.808 | 09HQPA0055 | Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, Rocky Mountain CESU | PKG00013087 | Jul 15, 2009 | Jul 27, 2009 | View |
Package 1
Mandatory forms
48478 SF424-2.0.pdf
48478 Project-1.1.pdf
48478 SF424B-1.1.pdf
48478 SF424A-1.0.pdf
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