This grant is for developing an advanced statistical modeling tool to significantly improve long-range streamflow and annual water volume forecasts for Reclamation storage facilities in the western United States. Recognizing the complex challenges of water resource management, the initiative aims to reduce uncertainties in existing teleconnection-based predictions, providing crucial decision-support for managers. The tool will leverage freely available sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure anomaly data, which exhibit strong correlations with Western precipitation. The cooperative study unfolds in three phases: initially testing model validity, subsequently exploring underlying physical mechanisms, and finally refining and disseminating the enhanced forecasting models. This effort will equip water managers with more accurate, longer lead-time forecasts to optimize water delivery scheduling and volumes.
Opportunity ID: 52043
General Information
| Document Type: | Grants Notice |
| Funding Opportunity Number: | R10AC80201 |
| Funding Opportunity Title: | Multiple Teleconnection Index Based Prediction of Natural Flow |
| Opportunity Category: | Discretionary |
| Opportunity Category Explanation: | – |
| Funding Instrument Type: | Cooperative Agreement |
| Category of Funding Activity: | Natural Resources |
| Category Explanation: | – |
| Expected Number of Awards: | 1 |
| Assistance Listings: | 15.507 — Water 2025 |
| Cost Sharing or Matching Requirement: | No |
| Version: | Synopsis 1 |
| Posted Date: | Feb 22, 2010 |
| Last Updated Date: | – |
| Original Closing Date for Applications: | Mar 04, 2010 |
| Current Closing Date for Applications: | Mar 04, 2010 |
| Archive Date: | Feb 22, 2011 |
| Estimated Total Program Funding: | $75,000 |
| Award Ceiling: | $75,000 |
| Award Floor: | $75,000 |
Eligibility
| Eligible Applicants: | Others (see text field entitled “Additional Information on Eligibility” for clarification) |
| Additional Information on Eligibility: | This Funding Opportunity Announcement constitutes a Notice of Intent to award to a single source. Applications are not being solicited. |
Additional Information
| Agency Name: | Bureau of Reclamation, Denver Office |
| Description: | Effective management of water resources in the western United States is a complex and challenging series of problems that increasingly requires decision-support systems to balance user demands with water supply. A key component of these support systems is accurate and robust forecasts of water availability at sufficient lead-time to allow managers to adjust the scheduling and volume of water delivery. Significant effort in forecasting of water availability over the over the previous 4 to 5 decades has yielded predictive models that provide managers reasonably accurate streamflow forecasts at seasonal (<3 months) timescales. Longer range streamflow forecasting models have been shown to benefit from the use of teleconnection indices through the research by the Bureau of Reclamation, the National Weather Service, Natural Resources Conservation Service and others. Despite this research, there is a desire to reduce the uncertainty associated with the teleconnection based forecasts. The cooperative study will develop a statistical modeling tool to forecast streamflow and annual water volumes input to Reclamation storage facilities at lead-times of approximately 9 months (First forecast issue November for water supply November to July). The modeling tool will use as input freely available data products meant to capture the magnitude of several sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies that exhibit strong correlations with Western precipitation and streamflow. A rigorous cross-validation procedure during model develop will be leveraged to equip the modeling with a measure of the uncertainty in the estimate. In order to bring the best science to bear on the problem the cooperative study will consist of three phases. Phase I will build on previous work at Boise State University and the Bureau of Reclamation and test the probability that the models are not random in nature. Phase II will explore the physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the models development. Phase III will refine the forecasts developed previously with the information gained through Phases I and II and to produce and disseminate the new models and tools. |
| Link to Additional Information: | – |
| Grantor Contact Information: | If you have difficulty accessing the full announcement electronically, please contact:
Randale Jackson
Contract Specialist Phone 303-445-2432 Email:rjackson@usbr.gov |
Version History
| Version | Modification Description | Updated Date |
|---|---|---|
Related Documents
Folder 52043 Other Supporting Documents-Notice of Intent 1 -> notice of intent bsu 02-17-10.pdf
Packages
| Agency Contact Information: | Randale Jackson Contract Specialist Phone 303-445-2432 Email: rjackson@usbr.gov |
| Who Can Apply: | Organization Applicants |
| Assistance Listing Number | Competition ID | Competition Title | Opportunity Package ID | Opening Date | Closing Date | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.507 | PKG00016601 | Feb 22, 2010 | Mar 04, 2010 | View |
Package 1
Mandatory forms
52043 SF424-2.0.pdf
52043 SF424A-1.0.pdf
52043 SF424B-1.1.pdf
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